By Januarius Asongu, PhD
I generally avoid the politics of French Cameroun. My principal concern has long been the emancipation of the former British Southern Cameroons, today commonly called Ambazonia. Yet, given what I regard as the annexation of Ambazonia by La République du Cameroun, developments in Yaoundé cannot simply be ignored. Political change there will inevitably affect Ambazonia, just as the unresolved Ambazonian question will continue to shape Cameroun’s future.
President Paul Biya’s eventual succession is therefore about much more than his age or the identity of the person who comes after him. After more than four decades under one president, the deeper question is whether institutions that have become so closely associated with one leader can function effectively without him. And for Ambazonians, another question is equally important: will a new generation of leadership finally confront the political and historical dispute between La République du Cameroun and the former British Southern Cameroons?
Beyond the Search for Biya’s Successor
No country should build its political future around one person. Leaders come and go; institutions must endure.
Democracy, despite its many imperfections, remains our best means of allowing people to choose their leaders, hold them accountable, correct political mistakes, and peacefully remove governments that no longer enjoy their confidence. But democracy should never be treated as a finished product. All human institutions are fallible. They must therefore remain open to criticism, correction, and improvement.
This is one of the lessons I develop in Faith, Power & Emancipation. Liberation is not simply about overthrowing an oppressive order or replacing one ruler with another. Genuine freedom must remain grounded in truth, moral responsibility, accountable institutions, and our willingness to correct systems that are failing the people they are supposed to serve.
Cameroon consequently needs more than another president. It needs institutions capable of functioning regardless of who occupies the presidency.
Biya’s Succession Dilemma
President Biya’s extraordinarily long tenure has made succession particularly difficult. For decades, political authority has revolved around him. That arrangement may provide continuity while the central figure remains in control, but it creates uncertainty when his capacity to govern diminishes or his presidency eventually ends.
Various succession possibilities have been discussed: a trusted figure from within the existing establishment, a younger compromise candidate, a member of the Biya family, or some other political arrangement. Each carries different political consequences. But concentrating too heavily on personalities misses the larger problem.
Replacing Paul Biya with another powerful president while leaving the political architecture unchanged would not amount to democratic transformation. It would simply give the existing system a new face.
The real test is whether succession becomes an opportunity for institutional renewal.
Can elections genuinely allow citizens to choose and reject their leaders? Can Parliament exercise meaningful authority? Can courts act independently? Can the civil service function professionally regardless of the party in power? Can security institutions protect citizens and constitutional order rather than particular political interests?
These questions matter far more than the identity of Biya’s successor.
The Ambazonia Question Cannot Be Avoided
For me, however, any discussion of post-Biya Cameroon remains incomplete without confronting the Ambazonian question.
For years, Yaoundé has treated the crisis largely as a security problem. Yet military force cannot resolve a fundamentally political and historical dispute. It may suppress particular manifestations of resistance, but force cannot manufacture legitimacy or erase historical grievances.
A new president could simply inherit the conflict and continue the policies of the Biya era. That would be a serious mistake. The cycle of repression, resistance, retaliation, displacement, and suffering could continue indefinitely—and potentially deteriorate again into devastating fratricidal warfare.
A different approach would begin by recognizing that the Ambazonian question must ultimately be addressed politically. That means honestly confronting history, constitutional arrangements, competing interpretations of the union, accumulated grievances, and the political aspirations of the people concerned.
Dialogue does not require anyone to predetermine its outcome. It requires acknowledging that sustainable political arrangements cannot ultimately rest upon coercion.
From Personal Rule to Democratic Institutions
The post-Biya period therefore presents both danger and opportunity.
The danger is that succession becomes little more than an elite contest over who inherits presidential power. In that scenario, Cameroonians and Ambazonians become spectators while powerful individuals struggle over control of the existing system.
The greater opportunity is to reconsider the system itself.
Cameroon needs a political order in which institutions matter more than personalities; where political authority is accountable; where elections are credible; where courts and legislatures can perform their constitutional responsibilities; and where serious political disagreements can be addressed through dialogue rather than force.
This is consistent with the central insight of Liberative Realism: emancipation must combine the struggle against injustice with truth, responsibility, and institutional wisdom. Destroying defective institutions without constructing better ones does not necessarily produce freedom. Neither does replacing one powerful individual with another.
The question after Biya, therefore, should not simply be: Who will become president?
It should be: What democratic institutions must be built so that the fate of the country never again depends so heavily upon one individual?
And for those of us concerned about Ambazonia, another question remains unavoidable: Will the post-Biya leadership have the courage to address the Ambazonian question honestly, politically, and peacefully?
Paul Biya will eventually leave the presidency. The greater challenge is whether the political system he leaves behind will simply reproduce itself—or whether succession will create space for democratic correction, institutional renewal, meaningful dialogue, and a more responsible approach to the unresolved conflicts of the Biya era.
That—not merely the identity of the next president—will determine the true significance of the post-Biya transition.